The history of Swine Flu can be traced from 1918 to the present. Although we have more sophisticated means of investigation at our disposal, our reactions are still quite primitive – fight or flight – and not necessarily aided by increased scientific understanding. Swine Flu is not just a health issue, but part of an equally important concern that is about global food security and sustainability.
Some Swine Flu Facts
The Centre for Disease Control have estimated, as of November 2009, that deaths in the US alone amount to 9820. Transmission from pigs to humans rarely occurs. The World Health Organisation records that only 12 cases have been found in the U.S. since 2005. Vaccine production is problematic as the virus continually mutates; an effective vaccine depends upon a stable virus.
The true number of cases is difficult to estimate for a whole range of reasons, among which is the impracticality of conducting medical tests on a massive scale. Symptoms are usually mild and almost indistinguishable from normal influenza, except in children where nausea, vomiting and diarrhoea may be present .
Probable Risks
In May 2008 Matt Roper, a journalist writing for the UK Daily Mirror, reported on the UK government's release of secret archives. Scientists had been tasked in 1980 with working out the probability of death by the average British citizen from a falling asteroid. They came up with a table of probability for a range of fatal scenarios. Here are just a few examples:
- Death in a car crash - 5,000/1
- By murder - 20,000/1
- By lightning - 71,000/1
- In a bathtub - 807,000/1
- By falling out of bed - 2,000,000/1
- By Weapons of Mass Destruction - 6,000,000/1
By extrapolating from the current mortality rates from Swine Flu - although they are far from accurate - set against world population figures, the probability of death from Swine Flu is a much less likely scenario than those worked out by the British scientists.
Perhaps the focus on the pathological aspects of Swine Flu obscures an underlying, but equally relevant concern, the safe and environmentally secure production of food.
Food Sustainability
This is a global issue that has an effect on all of us. Simply put, it means that for the first time in human history the greatest part of our population are urban dwellers, but the vast bulk of our produce comes from the countryside where the population is dwindling.
Our food source sustainability is threatened: there is an inverse correlation between those that produce our food, the environment in which it is produced, and those that consume that produce.
Social and Environmental Impact
Science is intimately connected with society's need to maximize output from agricultural resources and minimize social and environmental impact. Pig and poultry farming are good examples of areas where maximizing output can also increase social risk.
Studies in virology and immunology in farm animals have shown that while resistance to antibiotics can develop very quickly, viruses can mutate just as speedily. Intensive farming can lead to very serious disease issues.
Food Security in Britain
Information on Britain's approach to issues of food security and associated challenges is contained on the Food Security web site, launched 10 December 2009 and hosted by the British Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council.
According to the UK Institute of Animal Health "The overall costs of animal diseases to the UK over the past 15 years may have exceeded £15 Billion through impact on production losses and implementation of control strategies."
The optimal application of science, in terms of food security, is still being worked out and is likely to be an ongoing challenge for some time. This is acknowledged by the British Institute for Animal Health in their mission statement: where they aim to:
"deliver high quality fundamental, strategic and applied science into infectious animal diseases that currently affect or threaten the UK and, from that knowledge, to advance veterinary and medical science, enhance the sustainability of livestock farming, improve animal welfare, safeguard the supply and safety of food, and protect public health and the environment.”
Sustainable Food Production
Sustainability is a serious issue, and there is plenty of scope for more political cooperation and agreement about how we produce our food, based on accurate information and clearer understanding.
Since we have a common interest in our mutual welfare, achieving political consensus will enable us to have greater security and offset the impact of knee jerk reactions in the face of threat. One positive outcome from the Swine Flu scare could be a more concerted approach to common global problems.
Sources:
http://www.gilead.com/pr_1344209
Gilead Sciences Announces Record Third Quarter 2009 Financial Results
http://www.iah.ac.uk/ecosoc/docs/Economic_impact_of_IAH.pdf
Alister Gillies - Alister's background is in project development. He is trained in counselling and personal development, although his academic background is ...
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